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Currently Active Enhancement Projects

GMG-EP-2 (2020-2024) (funded by Shell): Stress-based seismicity forecasting for CO2 storage.

Experimental plan:
  • WP1:Development of a modeling framework to  estimate pore pressure, reservoir deformation, and  stress variations with uncertainties quantification. Estimate seismicity rate with account for the nucleation process represented using the rate&state formalism.
  • WP2: Evaluation of the forecasting performance using the  Groningen  test case. This task involves the production of a seismicity catalog produced with Machine Learning techniques.
-Kaveh, H., Batlle, P., Acosta, M., Kulkarni, P., Bourne, S.J. & Avouac, J.P., 2023. Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field, Seismological Research Letters. [PDF]

-Acosta, M., Avouac, J.-P., Smith, J.D., Sirorattanakul, K., Kaveh, H., & Bourne, S.J. (2023). Earthquake nucleation characteristics revealed by seismicity response to seasonal stress variations induced by gas production at Groningen. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105455. [PDF]

-Elías R Heimisson, Jonathan D Smith, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Stephen J Bourne, Coulomb threshold rate-and-state model for fault reactivation: application to induced seismicity at Groningen, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 228, Issue 3, March 2022, Pages 2061–2072, [PDF].

-Meyer, H., Smith, J. D., Bourne, S., & Avouac, J-P. (2023). An integrated framework for surface deformation modelling and induced seismicity forecasting due to reservoir operations. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 528, 299-318. [PDF].

GMG-EP-3 (2023-2024) (funded by ExxonMobil): Improving the understanding of injection induced earthquakes in the Permian Basin, Texas.

Experimental plan:
  • WP1:Surface deformation measurements.
  • WP2: Stochastic declustering of seismicity.
  • WP3: Stress-based probabilistic seismicity model.
  • WP4: Deterministic modeling of fault response to injections.