Currently Active Enhancement Projects

GMG-EP-2 (2020-2024) (funded by Shell): Stress-based seismicity forecasting for CO2 storage.

Experimental plan:

WP1:Development of a modeling framework to estimate pore pressure, reservoir deformation, and stress variations with uncertainties quantification. Estimate seismicity rate with account for the nucleation process represented using the rate&state formalism.
WP2: Evaluation of the forecasting performance using the Groningen test case. This task involves the production of a seismicity catalog produced with Machine Learning techniques.

Publications:

-Tamama, Y., Acosta, M., Bourne, S.J., Avouac, J.P. Earthquake growth inhibited at higher Coulomb stress change rate at Groningen. Geophysical Research Letters 51 (20), e2024GL110139. [PDF]. DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110139

-Krittanon Sirorattanakul, John D. Wilding, Mateo Acosta, Yuexin Li, Zachary E. Ross, Stephen J. Bourne, Jan van Elk, Jean‐Philippe Avouac; Bursts of Fast Propagating Swarms of Induced Earthquakes at the Groningen Gas Field. Seismological Research Letters 2024 [PDF] DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240107

-Kaveh, H., Batlle, P., Acosta, M., Kulkarni, P., Bourne, S.J. & Avouac, J.P., 2023. Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field, Seismological Research Letters. [PDF]

-Acosta, M., Avouac, J.-P., Smith, J.D., Sirorattanakul, K., Kaveh, H., & Bourne, S.J. (2023). Earthquake nucleation characteristics revealed by seismicity response to seasonal stress variations induced by gas production at Groningen. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105455. http://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105455 [PDF]

-Elías R Heimisson, Jonathan D Smith, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Stephen J Bourne, Coulomb threshold rate-and-state model for fault reactivation: application to induced seismicity at Groningen, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 228, Issue 3, March 2022, Pages 2061–2072, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab467. [PDF].

-Meyer, H., Smith, J. D., Bourne, S., & Avouac, J-P. (2023). An integrated framework for surface deformation modelling and induced seismicity forecasting due to reservoir operations. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 528, 299-318. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP528-2022-169. [PDF].

GMG-EP-3 (2023-2024) (funded by ExxonMobil): Improving the understanding of injection induced earthquakes in the Permian Basin, Texas.

Experimental plan:

WP1:Surface deformation measurements.
WP2: Stochastic declustering of seismicity.
WP3: Stress-based probabilistic seismicity model.
WP4: Deterministic modeling of fault response to injections.