Projects
GMG-EP-2 (2020-) (funded by Shell): Stress-based seismicity forecasting for CO2 storage.
Experimental plan:
- WP1:Development of a modeling framework to estimate pore pressure, reservoir deformation, and stress variations with uncertainties quantification. Estimate seismicity rate with account for the nucleation process represented using the rate&state formalism.
- WP2: Evaluation of the forecasting performance using the Groningen test case. This task involves the production of a seismicity catalog produced with Machine Learning techniques.
Publications:
Tamama, Y., Acosta, M., Bourne, S.J., Avouac, J.P. Earthquake growth inhibited at higher Coulomb stress change rate at Groningen. Geophysical Research Letters 51 (20), e2024GL110139. [PDF]. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110139
Krittanon Sirorattanakul, John D. Wilding, Mateo Acosta, Yuexin Li, Zachary E. Ross, Stephen J. Bourne, Jan van Elk, Jean‐Philippe Avouac; Bursts of Fast Propagating Swarms of Induced Earthquakes at the Groningen Gas Field. Seismological Research Letters 2024 [PDF] DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240107
Kaveh, H., Batlle, P., Acosta, M., Kulkarni, P., Bourne, S.J. & Avouac, J.P., 2023. Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field, Seismological Research Letters. [PDF]
Acosta, M., Avouac, J.-P., Smith, J.D., Sirorattanakul, K., Kaveh, H., & Bourne, S.J. (2023). Earthquake nucleation characteristics revealed by seismicity response to seasonal stress variations induced by gas production at Groningen. Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2023GL105455. http://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105455 [PDF]
Elías R Heimisson, Jonathan D Smith, Jean-Philippe Avouac, Stephen J Bourne, Coulomb threshold rate-and-state model for fault reactivation: application to induced seismicity at Groningen, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 228, Issue 3, March 2022, Pages 2061–2072, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab467. [PDF].
Meyer, H., Smith, J. D., Bourne, S., & Avouac, J-P. (2023). An integrated framework for surface deformation modelling and induced seismicity forecasting due to reservoir operations. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 528, 299-318. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP528-2022-169. [PDF].
GMG-EP-3 (2023-) (funded by ExxonMobil): Improving the understanding of injection induced earthquakes in the Permian Basin, Texas.
Experimental plan:
- WP1:Surface deformation measurements.
- WP2: Stochastic declustering of seismicity.
- WP3: Stress-based probabilistic seismicity model.
- WP4: Deterministic modeling of fault response to injections.
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GMG-EP-4 (2024-) (funded by Chevron): Understanding of injection induced earthquakes in the Delaware Basin, Texas.
The project aims at improving the understanding of injection induced earthquakes in the Delaware Basin, Texas. The study area spans an area of about 30 X 20 miles, including the 2022 M5.4 Mentone earthquake sequence. The project will include constraining and modeling of pore pressure (Task 1), production of InSAR measurements to detect surface movement associated to the injections using the available archive of Sentinel-1 data (Task 2), the analysis of the existing seismicity data (to be provided by Chevron) and stochastic declustering of the existing seismicity data for probabilistic attribution of seismicity to injections (Task 3), the development and calibration of a stress-based model for probabilistic forecasting of seismicity (Task 4) and some comparison of different methods for deterministic forecasting of fault response to injections (Task 5).